Roadmap: Phasing out natural gas for indoor heating

In the spring of 2019, Energifonden started the project “Phasing out natural gas for indoor heating”. The Danish Parliament jointly agreed on an energy agreement in June 2018, which established that Denmark will work towards a goal of zero emission of climate gasses in 2050 at the latest. Based on that, Energifonden wanted to contribute to a strategy for phasing out natural gas for indoor heating. Two scenarios have been defined, with phasing out in either 2030 or 2040.

The project has been carried out by Ea Energy Analyses in cooperation with Marketminds, and the work was led by a steering committee consisting of the following members:

• Peter Birch Sørensen, Head of the steering committee, professor at the University of Copenhagen
• Lars Aagaard, CEO, Dansk Energi
• Stine Grenaa, Head of Gas System Development, Energinet
• Peter Kristensen, Head of Market and Business Development, Evida
• Kim Mortensen, CEO, Dansk Fjernvarme
• Simon O. Rasmussen, Assistant Director, Tekniq Arbejdsgiverne
• Frank Rosager, Director, Biogas Danmark

Natural gas is used for indoor heating in homes, in the trade and service sectors and in industry. The project has focused on homes and the trade and service sectors only.

The method of analysis in the project can be divided into three main elements overall: i) selection of possible sustainable energy alternatives to natural gas for indoor heating, ii) calculation of the socioeconomic optimum (the optimal socioeconomic heat supply provided a 100% phasing out of natural gas) in 2030 and 2040 respectively, and iii) analysis of instruments for phasing out.

The project ran from March 2019 to May 2020.