Energy security in the context of energy transition – Lessons and Challenges within Europe and China

With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, world leaders emphasised the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century to curb the negative effects of climate change. China aims to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The EU has a binding goal to be climate neutral by 2050. Achieving these targets requires a major overhaul of energy systems, including infrastructure, planning, and regulation, along with coordinated progress across energy sectors. This means that for the coming decades, energy systems around the world are in transition. This transitional stage with a growing share of variable renewable energy resources and technological uncertainties brings about new risks and the need for a redefinition of the concept of energy security.

Ea Energy Analyses cooperated with CEC (China Electricity Council) on a project where the concept of energy security in China and the EU was explored, along with how the concept is changing in the energy transition. In a second part of the project, the risks of being dependent on future (2050 and 2060) large scale variable renewables in the power system were assessed. The risks were associated with increased dependency on climate and weather patterns, e.g., wind, and solar power. This was done by a comparative analysis of the power system adequacy contribution (or load carrying capacity) of RE resources deployed in Europe vis-a-vis China; essentially comparing the degree to which RE-resources themselves will contribute towards maintaining generation adequacy, relative to projected demands.

The project ran from August 2023 to November 2023 and is financed under ECECP (EU-China Energy Cooperation Platform).