Analyses for the post 2025 climate plan for Copenhagen Municipality

In 2012, Copenhagen Municipality published the climate plan “KBH 2025”, showing the path to reduction of carbon emissions in Copenhagen with the target that the city should be carbon neutral by 2025. The work on climate issues is ongoing, and Copenhagen Municipality is now analysing and setting targets for goals and actions for the period post 2025.

As a part of this, Copenhagen Municipality contacted Ea Energy Analyses to get support for the analyses, focusing on the role and options for development of district heating, including how it fits with the power system. The project builds on the previous project Scenarios for the district heating system in the Danish capital area in 2030, which was carried out by Vestforbrænding (waste management and energy company) in cooperation with CTR, HOFOR and VEKS (transmission, utilities, and district heating companies in the capital area) in 2020-2021. With the scenarios from this project as a starting point, Copenhagen Municipality wished to develop and analyse their own scenarios for the development, which would then be a part of the future climate plan for the time period after 2025.

The focus was on the following areas:

Expansion of new technologies and reduction of biomass use:

• Accelerated implementation of heat pumps in the capital area, phasing out biomass and increasing recycling, electrification of district heat production and transport

Implementation of CCS to ensure carbon stability

• Barriers to establishing carbon capture and storage (CCS) on waste and biomass plants

To illuminate the topics above, Ea carried out scenario analyses with focus on district heat economy and consumer economy, and designed strategy presentations. The scenario analyses had focus points in 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040, as well as the long-term system development in 2050.