Scenarios for energy consumption in the Danish transport sector

On behalf of the Danish Petroleum Association (EOF), Ea Energy Analyses has made an analysis of the possible development of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the Danish transport sector until 2035. The project uncovered and compared the results from five different scenarios for the development of the energy demand in the Danish transport sector. The five scenarios are the reference, efficiency, electric vehicle, fuel and combination scenarios.

For the purpose of the project, a spreadsheet model has been developed which makes it possible to simulate for instance the development in the size of the fleet, the energy consumption and emissions of CO2 on the basis of assumptions regarding technologies, fuels and energy efficiency of new vehicles. Data on the energy consumption and characteristics of the existing fleet have been obtained from Statistics Denmark and the Danish Energy Agency.

Continued fall in energy consumption and emissions

The analysis showed that the total energy consumption and CO2 emission in the transport sector peaked in 2007, after which the recorded fall may be expected to continue. The fall continues in spite of steady growth in the demand for transport, and in the reference scenario, this is primarily due to the expected development of more fuel-efficient cars.