Security of supply analysis

For Danish organisation Green Power Denmark, Ea carried out a model-based analysis of the future electricity system and the security of supply in Denmark. The analysis focused on how the security of the electricity supply can be challenged in years of unfavourable weather conditions and lower capacity of electricity plants that can be regulated. In addition, Ea investigated various solutions to issues for the security of supply. The analysis from Ea became part of the background material for the project “Green electricity balance for the future” carried out by Green Power Denmark.

System adequacy

The analysis treated the adequacy aspect of electricity supply, which in part tells you something about the balance between production and usage, and in part about ability of the electricity network to connect production and usage. Adequacy was calculated in a deterministic fashion by setting up certain situations (for instance all the hours of a specific climate year), and the number of hours where the usage is not covered, were counted and analysed.

Scenario analysis

The first part of the analysis was a future scenario for Europe with a high degree of electrification, a large expansion of solar and wind energy, and a reduction in the capacity of electricity plants that can be regulated. The prerequisites for the scenario were decided based on data from ENTSO-E. The scenario was then calculated for a year when the security of supply was particularly challenged, and the consequences for the power system adequacy were analysed. In the second part of the analysis, it was investigated how a number of measures for improving the security of supply would affect the power system adequacy.  The measures in question included strategic reserves, capacity market, flexible usage, and various kinds of electricity storages.

The report “Grøn elbalance i fremtiden” can be found on the Green Power Denmark website, and the background report made by Ea can be found here (also in Danish).

The project ran from May 2023 to February 2024.