Energy scenarios for Hainan Clean Energy Island

The Hainan Province in the South China Sea has a growing energy demand, and currently relies mainly on non-renewable energy sources. The Chinese government has chosen the region as a demonstration zone of clean energy development by 2030, in line with the overall strategy for China to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, linked to the ongoing power market reform.

In this project, the questions of how the power sector in Hainan can transition towards clean energy, and what the least cost approach is for this were addressed.

Two scenarios were analysed:

• Business as usual (BAU): Shows how the energy system will evolve if current policies are maintained
• Clean Energy Island (CEI): Has conditions based on Hainan’s plan to reduce production from coal by 2030 and increase low-carbon energy technologies

The main findings from the analysis were that a path to clean energy is to reduce exports and increase energy generation from renewable sources, with solar and wind power as the options with the least cost. Additionally, for the CEI policy to have an impact on the broader energy system, policy and market design will have to be coordinated with the neighbouring provinces.

The project ran from December 2019 to October 2020. It was carried out for the Danish Energy Agency, as a part of the Danish-Chinese Energy Partnership Program, together with the China National Renewable Energy Centre. For more information, visit the DEA’s website.