Theme: Models

Modelling of energy systems

Ea Energy Analyses uses mathematical models for analysing complex and interconnected energy systems such as electricity and district heating. We find the use of models and modelling results to be a strong basis for serious deliberations.

 

It is our aim to always have the capacity to analyse the most current issues in terms of technologies, policy goals, regulations and economics, and as such our tools are continuously under development. We gladly impart knowledge to our clients on the use of energy models and supply training courses in this regard.

 

We often use the models Balmorel and SisyfosR. SisyfosR is in many ways the opposite of Balmorel. Balmorel is deterministic and is used in economic analyses. SisyfosR is used in stochastic analyses and to predict security of supply. The two models supplement each other.

 

Balmorel

Balmorel is a model that finds the optimal use of technologies used in the energy system from an economic point of view, and a strength of Balmorel is that it is capable to calculate even at large energy systems with electricity and district heating.

 

We have used the model with up to 17 European countries – where the model worked out optimal dispatch of existing power plants as well as investments in new power plants and transmission connections. Working with Balmorel is often done by drawing up a series of alternative scenarios, e.g. with more or less renewable energy or with variations of the parameters for consumption, fuel prices etc.

 

Ea Energy Analyses uses the Balmorel model in numerous projects. Read more about the projects, where Balmorel has been used.

 

SisyfosR

In cooperation with the Danish Energy Agency, we have developed a new version of the model Sisyfos, called SisyfosR, which calculates about a 100 times faster than the previous model. SisyfosR calculates security of supply using stochastic analysis to find the frequency of situations, where the demand of electricity cannot be met.

 

The model calculates the probability of situations where not all electricity demand can be served (ENS). The probability of outage at power plants as well as transmission connections is used to calculate ENS by running a huge number of random cases, e.g. 5-10 million. Thereby, even rare situations can be described. SisyfosR delivers the results with no regards to economics or optimal dispatch. It is a stochastic analysis, and it is a powerful model for calculating security of supply.

 

Read more about the projects, where SisyfosR has been used.

 

 

Last update 02.12.2016

 

Helge Ørsted Pedersen

 

 

Ea Energy Analyses Frederiksholms Kanal 4, 3. th.1220 Copenhagen KDenmark Tel work+45 88 70 70 83 Fax +45 33 32 16 61

GEO: 55.675932, 12.575096