Main conclusions from the analyses of 50 per cent wind power in Denmark in 2025

Two scenarios of the future development of the electricity and combined heat and power sectors in Denmark and in our neighbouring countries were analysed: One scenario, in which the increase in wind power capacity in Denmark takes place on market terms, and another scenario where the increase in wind power is determined by a political objective of gradually increasing wind power to produce an amount of electricity corresponding to 50% of the Danish electricity consumption in 2025.

 

  • Integration of 50% wind power into the Danish electricity system is technically possible without threatening security of supply. Reaching the objective with a viable socio-economy implies that a more dynamic electricity system is developed and that the international electricity market functions efficiently in order to handle balancing and needs of system reserves across borders.

  • 3,500 MW onshore wind turbines can very probably be installed without reinforcing the main electricity grid. However, detailed grid analyses have not been carried out.

  • In addition to existing and decided 825 MW offshore wind farms, another 2,250 MW offshore wind power can be integrated into the Danish transmission system without constructing new overhead lines.

  • Investments in grid infrastructure in the years 2010 – 2025 amount to approx. €67 million per year. This cost to society is offset by corresponding income from saved fuel costs, reduced consumption of CO2 quotas, reduced cost of environmental impact from NOx and SO2 as well as increased electricity exports.

  • The socio-economic benefit in the 50 per cent scenario is approx. €2.7 million per year in the basic calculation based on a discount rate of 3 per cent. The entire North European system will reap a benefit of 89 million per year from the 50 per cent wind scenario.

  • In both scenarios, a considerable windpower increase corresponding to approx. 15 per cent of the countries’ electricity consumption is presupposed in the countries surrounding Denmark. The increased trading of wind power in the electricity market will raise the congestion rents to a level that will probably make grid reinforcements between the countries economically
    viable. This will further increase the value of wind power.

  • In the wind scenario, prices in the Danish electricity market in 2025 drop by approx. 0.4 euro cent per kWh compared to the reference scenario. Viewed separately, this will be of benefit to the electricity consumers.

 

 

Last update 05-Nov-2012

Further information:

 

Contact: Hans Henrik Lindboe

 

 

 

 

 

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